A GOLDEN OPPORTUNITY – O3 MINING (TSXV: OIII) (OTC: OIIIF)
Sponsored by O3 MINING
A GOLDEN OPPORTUNITY
O3 MINING – TSX.V: OIII | OTCQX: OIIIF
This communication is not an offer to buy or sell securities nor is it to be construed as personal investment advice. Nothing contained in this communication should be relied upon as a promise or representation as to future performance.
With gold commodity prices hovering near all-time highs, I have noticed a significant disconnect between strong market fundamentals and the performance of many high-quality mining names. Despite the surge in gold, a number of these miners have not yet seen this reflected in their share prices, creating an attractive and skewed risk-reward opportunity for investors.
I have been carefully searching for a standout company that presents this prime arbitrage opportunity and few companies are as strategically positioned to capitalize on this trend as O3 Mining (OTCQX: OIIIF) (TSX.V: OIII) .
With an impressive portfolio of high-potential assets located in one of the richest gold-producing regions on earth – the Abitibi Greenstone Belt – O3 Mining stands at the forefront of a new wave of gold exploration and development.
With its flagship Marban Alliance project strategically positioned near one of Canada’s largest open-pit gold mines, the recent completion a C$21M bought deal financing, and a management team experienced in bringing projects from discovery to production, it’s only a matter of time before O3 Mining garners the attention it deserves.
Notwithstanding the above, there are five key reasons that I have decided to add this name to my long-term investment watchlist:
- Flagship Marban Alliance: A gold mine in the making, Marban Alliance is estimated to produce 161,000 ounces of gold annually with substantial economic potential. Assuming gold prices remain at $2,400 per oz, Marban Alliance is expected to generate $484.84 million (C$668 million) in EBITDA in the first two years of production.
- Strategic Partnerships & Future Consolidation: Goldfields’ recent proposed acquisition of Osisko Mining will position it as O3 Mining’s largest shareholder, making O3 Mining an attractive target for future consolidation. Goldfields, with a strong presence in the region, has been seeking opportunities in the Val d’Or camp, and O3 Mining’s land package makes it a key player in any potential M&A activity.
- Promising Exploration: The Kinebik project is set to unveil new discoveries. O3 Mining is preparing for a 5,000-meter drill program in Q4 2024, targeting high-grade gold deposits that could further enhance its resource portfolio.
- Unmatched Value Proposition: With gold prices soaring to all-time highs, O3 Mining is trading at a substantial discount compared to its peers. Currently valued at an EV/oz multiple of C$18/oz, O3 Mining offers a massive upside when compared to the sector average of C$28/oz, with M&A deals often completed at C$63/oz. This discrepancy presents an unparalleled risk-reward opportunity for investors looking to gain exposure to gold in one of the safest and most prolific mining jurisdictions globally.
- Strong Financials & Institutional Backing: The tight share structure with significant insider and institutional buying, equity research coverage and a recent C$21M bought deal financing suggest a strong belief in the success of the company – a bullish signal for future growth.
- Flagship Marban Alliance: A gold mine in the making, Marban Alliance is estimated to produce 161,000 ounces of gold annually with substantial economic potential. Assuming gold prices remain at $2,400 per oz, Marban Alliance is expected to generate $484.84 million (C$668 million) in EBITDA in the first two years of production.
Spartan’s Technical Analysis
O3 MINING – OTCQX: OIIIF | TSX.V: OIII
- Idea: Long Speculation $OIIIF $0.75 – $0.81 (Starter Position)
- Spartan’s 1st Target Area: $1.00
- Spartan’s 2nd Target Area: $1.13
- Spartan’s 3rd Target Area: $1.33
- Stops: $0.50
- Idea Timeframe: 3-6 Months
Share Structure Overview:
- Float: 67.56M
- Shares Outstanding: ~108M
- Insider Ownership: 6.3%
- Strategic Investors & Management Ownership: 53.9%
- Free Float: 46.1%
- Market Cap: $80.42M (C$110.72M) – as of October 11, 2024
INVESTMENT THESIS
Company Overview
O3 Mining (OTCQX: OIIIF) (TSX.V: OIII) is a Canadian-based gold explorer and mine developer on the road to produce from its high prospective gold camps in Quebec, Canada. Well-capitalized and owning a 100% interest in all their properties (111,000 hectares), O3 Mining’s projects include its flagship Marban Alliance, as well as Horizon, Alpha and Kinebik.
The Marban Alliance project is O3 Mining’s flagship project located in the heart of the Malartic gold mining camp, covering 7,525 hectares and located 12 kilometers from the Canadian Malartic Mine (one of Canada’s largest open-pit gold mines). In 2023, 53,654 tonnes of ore was processed daily at the Canadian Malartic Mine, recently pouring their 7 millionth ounce of gold.
In August 2024, O3 Mining completed a C$21M bought deal financing to fund engineering work to support feasibility studies and is actively evaluating synergies to expand their footprint and secure processing infrastructure for Marban Alliance. Their fall drilling program is expected to focus on the Kinebik project of the Casa Beradi district, with the Marban Alliance Feasibility Study expecting to start in Q1 2025.
The proposed C$2.16B acquisition of Osisko Mining by Goldfields is expected to make Goldfields the largest (17%) shareholder of O3 Mining. Goldfields has been trying to find a foothold in the Val d’Or camp in recent years (following a failed bid of Yamana JV with Osisko) and couple become a further consolidator (M&A) within the district.
Strategically Developing the Next Gold Mine in Quebec
The geographical advantages of O3 Mining extend beyond mere proximity to existing successful mining operations; they represent a strategic asset that can influence operational success.
High-Quality Geological Framework
The Abitibi Greenstone Belt is renowned for hosting some of the richest gold deposits globally, with historical production exceeding 200 million ounces of gold. O3 Mining’s landholdings are situated within this mineral-rich environment, specifically targeting areas known for their prolific gold mineralization. Over 1 million ounces of gold were produced in 2023 within a ~25 kilometer radius of O3 Mining’s Marban Alliance property.
Diverse Mineralization
O3 Mining’s properties showcase diverse mineralization, including not only gold but also potential VMW deposits which represent some of the richest sources globally of a diverse group of strategic metals including copper, zinc and lead. This multi-commodity potential enhances the overall value proposition of O3 Mining.
Top Canadian Mining Jurisdiction
A stable political environment reduces operational risks and increases the viability of a mine moving from exploration to production. Located in the 5th best mining jurisdiction in the world1, O3 Mining (OTCQX: OIIIF) (TSX.V: OIII) projects have access to key infrastructure including hydropower, mills, railroads, roads and experienced labour. With clear regulatory frameworks, supportive government policies and a strong commitment to sustainable development, the pro-business environment that O3 Mining finds themselves in enhances and makes O3 Mining an attractive proposition for institutional investors seeking stability amid global uncertainties.
Specific Deposits & Mineralization Details
Marban Alliance Project
The Marban Alliance project is O3 Mining’s Flagship project located in the heart of the Malartic gold mining camp. It covers 7,525 hectares and is located 12 kilometers from the Canadian Malartic Site, a highly active mine that recently finished pouring its 7 millionth ounce of gold.
Drilling at the Marban Alliance project has returned impressive intercepts, including high-grade gold results such as 12.4 g/t over 6.0 meters and 10.5 g/t over 3.0 meters, showcasing the potential for economically viable mining operations.
Once in production, Marban Alliance is expected to produce 161,000 ounces of gold per year over a 10-year life of mine with an Initial Capex of $435 million.
Project Highlights:
- Marban Alliance PFS (Pre-Feasibility Study) completed in September 2022 with a NPV of $464M and an unlevered IRR of 23.2%.
- “Malartic H,” a new deposit discovered in 2023, has an estimated 342,000 ounces of gold which O3 Mining expects might increase the mining life of Maran Alliances.
- Marban Alliance is expected to generate $484.84 million (C$668 million) in EBITDA in the first two years of production, assuming $2,400 / oz gold price.
- Environmental baseline study approximately 95% complete incorporating data from the past two years (this is essential to bring the mine from exploration to production status)
- O3 Mining has been engaging with host communities since 2021; its working group including a mix of residents, education sectors, NGO’s and various socio-economic and municipal stakeholders. This is significant as it will reduce the likelihood of permit delays due to increased stakeholder engagement.
- Marban Alliance PFS (Pre-Feasibility Study) completed in September 2022 with a NPV of $464M and an unlevered IRR of 23.2%.
You can find more information on O3 Mining’s projects, including their most recent investor presentation which includes an overview of their assets and a 3D map of Marban Alliance here.
Kinebik Project
Located in the northern part of the Abitibi Greenstone Belt, the Kinebik Project covers the Casa Beradi break and adjacent iron formations, the same formations present at the Casa Beradi mine (currently producing approximately 2,300 tonnes of ore a day – 2 million ounces of gold since 1988). The project totals over 30,694 hectares and offers promising discovery potential based on its strategic geological location, confirmed gold occurrences and limited historical drilling.
O3 Mining (OTCQX: OIIIF) (TSX.V: OIII) is preparing for a 5,000m DDH (diamond drill hole) program to be completed in Q4 2024 with a focus on the southeastern section of the property labeled the “Cameron Sector” with additional drilling possible as a follow up to attractive exploration results.
Proven Ability to Execute
The management team at O3 Mining not only brings a wealth of experience but also possesses a proven ability to execute on strategic objectives, including M&A and taking assets from discovery to production.
Diverse Backgrounds
The team’s combined experience spans decades in mining exploration, finance, and operations, equipping them with the insights necessary to navigate the complexities of the mining industry. Key members have previously led other mining companies through successful discoveries and developments, which adds credibility to O3 Mining’s strategic vision.
Jose Vizquerra, President, CEO & Director of O3 Mining, was previously the Executive Vice President of Strategic Development of Osisko Mining Inc (“Osisko”). Mr. Vizquerra joined Osisko from Oban Mining Corporation (“Oban”), where, as President and CEO, he played a leading role in the M&A combination of Oban, Corona Gold Corporation, Eagle Hill Exploration Corporation, and Ryan Gold Corporation to form Osisko.
Focus on Value Creation and M&A
The management team’s commitment to shareholder value is evident in their strategy to enhance resource estimates through aggressive exploration and diligent resource management. Their ability to adapt to changing market conditions and regulatory environments enables O3 Mining (OTCQX: OIIIF) (TSX.V: OIII) to pivot quickly, ensuring sustained progress regardless of external factors.
Mr. Vizquerra’s reputation and ability to take assets from discovery to production is evident in not only his previous success with Osisko, but with Osisko’s own investment back into O3 Mining. Osisko is currently the largest shareholder in O3 Mining, signaling their confidence that Mr. Vizquerra and his team are on the path to building another Osisko.
Following the proposed acquisition of Osisko Mining by Goldfields (C$2.16B), Goldfields will become the largest shareholder of O3 Mining and a potential M&A lead should Goldfields continue to further consolidate assets within the Val d’Or region.
Strategic Acquisition Potential
The increasing trend of consolidation in the gold mining sector positions O3 Mining as a highly attractive acquisition target.
Increased Valuation of Assets
As larger mining companies look to replenish dwindling reserves; they are actively seeking high-quality exploration assets. O3 Mining, with its strategic landholdings and ongoing exploration, fits these criteria perfectly. Comparisons with peers reveal that O3 Mining (OTCQX: OIIIF) (TSX.V: OIII) is currently undervalued relative to its potential, suggesting a ripe opportunity for acquisition before its true value is realized.
Acquisition Timing
Major mining companies typically prefer to acquire assets before significant discoveries are made public, positioning O3 Mining (OTCQX: OIIIF) (TSX.V: OIII) for a potential acquisition as soon as promising drill results are released. As exploration results begin to emerge, O3 Mining could attract significant investor interest, leading to potential stock price appreciation. This momentum could incentivize larger players to act quickly to acquire O3 Mining before it becomes too expensive.
Although O3 Mining is progressing their flagship Marban Alliance project with the intention to move into permitting and then production, O3 Mining can be seen as an important component in any Val d’Or consolidation discussion given its proximity to existing operations such as the Canadian Malartic Mine and other projects of scale in the region.
Well Capitalized – Financial Strength
The financial health of O3 Mining (OTCQX: OIIIF) (TSX.V: OIII) is an essential pillar of its investment case, reinforcing its potential for growth, moving into either production or acquisition. Not only has O3 Mining demonstrated prudent capital management to maximize exploration outcomes and shareholder value, but it has also maintained a solid balance sheet with adequate cash reserve to fund ongoing exploration without compromising operational flexibility.
As exploration progresses and resources are confirmed, O3 Mining is well-positioned to transition from exploration to production, providing revenue streams that can significantly enhance its valuation.
Capital Structure:
- Market Cap: $80.42M (C$110.72 M) – as of October 11, 2024
- Cash (Actual & Flow Through): $19.57M (C$27M)
- Investments (Public & Private Securities): $15.95M (C$22M)
- Convertible Debenture: $7.25M (C$10M)
Note: the convertible debenture is held by a strategic investor and has investor rights allowing them to maintain their position upon any financing. They most recently exercised their right during the completed C$21M financing in August 2024. The convertible debenture converts into O3 shares at a price of C$2.05 / share.
Share Structure:
- Float: 67.56M
- Shares Outstanding: ~108M
- Insider Ownership: 6.3%
- Strategic Investors & Management Ownership: 53.9%
- Free Float: 46.1%
O3 Mining (OTCQX: OIIIF) (TSX.V: OIII) benefits from a robust shareholder registry of institutional investors from Canada, the United States and Europe who continue to support the company. Its top shareholders include:
- Osisko Mining (soon to be Goldfields): 17%
- Franklin Resources: 7.2%
- Jose Vizquerra (President & CEO): 6.3%
- Konwave AG: 4.2%
- Ruffer LLP: 2.3%
- Merk: 2.1%
- Van Eck: 1.8%
The most recent C$21M bought deal financing in August 2024 also saw new institutional investors become shareholders including 1832 Asset Management, Libra Advisors and Anson Advisors among others. This increasing trend of institutional investors taking positions in O3 Mining is confirmation of increased value creation by the O3 Mining leadership team.
What’s even more impressive, following a site visit in 2024, seven (7) analysts are now providing equity research coverage on O3 Mining, including several major banks.
A list of the equity research reports is below, including links to each report:
Excellent Risk Reward Compared to Peers
O3 Mining (OTCQX: OIIIF) (TSX.V: OIII) is currently trading at an EV / oz price multiple of C$18 / oz of gold. For comparison, its peers in the space are trading at a median EV / oz price multiple of C$28 / oz of gold. If O3 Mining were to trade at the peer multiple of $C28/ oz we would expect an enterprise value of ~C$187M and a market cap of ~C164M.
Previous M&A transactions in the gold mining industry have been completed at a median EV / oz price multiple of C$63 / oz of gold. If O3 Mining were to trade at the precedent transaction EV/ oz multiple of C$63 / oz we would expect an enterprise value of ~C$287M and a market cap of ~C$324M (remember, its current market cap is only ~C$110.72M).
This indicates a significant valuation gap in O3 Mining regardless of moving into production or acquisition and presents an ideal investment opportunity from a risk reward standpoint.
Notwithstanding the above, collaborating with larger mining companies can provide O3 Mining (OTCQX: OIIIF) (TSX.V: OIII) with access to additional funding, expertise, and resources while reducing financial exposure. As O3 Mining continues to showcase positive exploration results, it is likely to continue to attract additional institutional investment, bolstering its financial position and enhancing share liquidity.
Technicals
Conclusion
O3 Mining (OTCQX: OIIIF) (TSX.V: OIII) offers a rare and compelling investment opportunity within the gold exploration and mining sector. The company’s flagship Marban Alliance project, located in Quebec’s highly coveted Abitibi Greenstone Belt, provides exposure to one of the richest gold-producing regions in the world. With over 1 million ounces of gold produced every year in the vicinity of its assets, O3 Mining stands out as a key player in an area with proven geological significance.
What sets O3 Mining apart is not just its strategic land position but also the robust leadership team steering the company. Led by CEO Jose Vizquerra, who brings a wealth of industry experience from his time at Osisko Mining, the team has demonstrated a clear focus on value creation and strong execution of strategic objectives. The company’s recent $21M financing ensures it is well-capitalized to advance its projects, including the highly anticipated Marban Alliance feasibility study and the upcoming Kinebik drill program, adding to the company’s exploration potential.
The ongoing consolidation in the gold mining industry further strengthens O3 Mining (OTCQX: OIIIF) (TSX.V: OIII) position as a prime acquisition target. With Goldfields set to become O3 Mining’s largest shareholder following the acquisition of Osisko Mining, the company could be a linchpin in the region’s future M&A activity. This makes O3 Mining not only a highly attractive long-term investment but also one with the potential for near-term upside, as major players look to replenish their reserves by acquiring high-quality exploration assets.
Furthermore, O3 Mining’s strong financial health and prudent capital management provide an additional layer of security for investors. With institutional backing from major stakeholders and a solid balance sheet, the company is well-positioned to transition from exploration to production. The value disconnect between O3 Mining and its peers offers an attractive entry point for investors, presenting a significant potential for re-rating as the company continues to unlock the value of its assets through ongoing exploration and project development.
In a world where gold remains a trusted store of value amid economic uncertainty, O3 Mining (OTCQX: OIIIF) (TSX.V: OIII) well-strategized projects and its presence in one of the top mining jurisdictions globally make it an attractive investment. Investors seeking exposure to a growing gold mining company with both near-term and long-term upside should consider adding O3 Mining to their portfolio before broader market recognition drives its valuation higher.
The combination of high-quality assets, management expertise, solid financial backing, and the potential for strategic acquisitions positions O3 Mining as a golden opportunity in the ever-evolving mining sector.
O3 MINING – OTCQX: OIIIF | TSX.V: OIII
- Idea: Long Speculation $OIIIF $0.75 – $0.81 (Starter Position)
- Spartan’s 1st Target Area: $1.00
- Spartan’s 2nd Target Area: $1.13
- Spartan’s 3rd Target Area: $1.33
- Stops: $0.50
- Idea Timeframe: 3-6 Months
Share Structure Overview:
- Float: 67.56M
- Shares Outstanding: ~108M
- Insider Ownership: 6.3%
- Strategic Investors & Management Ownership: 53.9%
- Free Float: 46.1%
- Market Cap: $80.42M (C$110.72M) – as of October 11, 2024
Current Idea is a speculation long. More information on O3 Mining including its recent investor presentation outlining its property and upcoming exploration campaign can be found here.
Best Regards,
Spartan (aka ‘Chris’)
Source(s):
- Fraser Institute 2023 – Investment attractiveness index.
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