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  /  Investment Thesis   /  QUARTERLY IN DEPTH INVESTMENT ANALYSIS – ATHA ENERGY CORP (OTC: SASKF)

QUARTERLY IN DEPTH INVESTMENT ANALYSIS – ATHA ENERGY CORP (OTC: SASKF)

Disseminated for ATHA Energy Corp (SASKF)

QUARTERLY IN DEPTH ANALYSIS

ATHA ENERGY CORP

This communication is not an offer to buy or sell securities nor is it to be construed as personal investment advice. Nothing contained in this communication should be relied upon as a promise or representation as to future performance.

In lieu of today’s “Spartan’s Weekly Picks” Newsletter, this week I am going to be focusing on what I feel is an extremely undervalued energy / mining play within a sector that’s setting up to explode.

For those of you that are new to Spartan Trading, or are just receiving our free weekly newsletter for the first time, my goal is to cover one company in detail every quarter that I feel has good investment potential when considering risk / reward.

Over the past several months I have been researching the Uranium sector as a whole and have selected one company that I feel is an undervalued gem that has the potential to double its valuation in the medium term.

The global energy landscape is undergoing a radical transformation and, potentially at the forefront of this evolution, is ATHA Energy Corp (ATHA). As the world shifts towards achieving net-zero emissions, ATHA finds itself in a unique position to contribute significantly to the global imperative.

I had the pleasure of speaking with ATHA’s CEO and Executive Management Team on numerous occasions, exploring the different avenues and possibilities the company has ahead of itself.

This comprehensive investment thesis delves into ATHA’s strategic advantages in the Uranium sector, focusing on the impeding global supply deficit, the company’s undervaluation relative to it’s competitors, it’s potential for groundbreaking discoveries and the remarkable team steering ATHA’s towards industry prominence.

Spartan’s $SASKF idea outlook: 

ATHA Energy Corp (OTCQB: SASKF; CSE: SASK; FRA: X5U)

  • Idea: Long SASKF $0.75+
  • Target Area (Short Term): $1.07
  • Target Area (2 – 6 Months): $1.37 – $1.50+
  • Risk: $0.20
  • Float: 80M
  • Shares Outstanding: 135.9M
  • Insider Ownership: 46% (Tightly Held)
  • Institutional Ownership: 25%

$SASKF Long Term Idea
Curling off the lows, yet to see volume come in from recent news and feel this is the perfect spot to start to build a base off the lows. Currently lagging behind the Uranium chart. IMO expect to see continuation as pipeline, news and sector progresses.

INVESTMENT THESIS

Macro-Economic Landscape: Monumental Global Market Opportunity

Uranium Supply Deficit: 
The uranium market is currently in a 26% production deficit and expected to increase significantly by 2040, with over 50% of global production embedded with significant geopolitical risk. The structural gap in the uranium market is not merely a challenge; it’s a monumental opportunity that ATHA is uniquely positioned to address. With a strategic focus on the impending supply deficit, ATHA’s operations align perfectly with the burgeoning demand for nuclear energy.

Net-Zero Energy Emission Strategy: 
Changes to energy policy have increased support for nuclear energy, leading to an increasing number of announcements for new, restarted, and extended reactors. The global push towards net-zero emissions establishes nuclear energy as a linchpin. ATHA, entrenched in the uranium sector, stands as a potential key player in the impending surge in demand for clean, efficient energy.


Global Nuclear Growth: 

ATHA’s significance in the nuclear energy narrative is emphasized by the industry’s staggering global growth. With substantial environmental, social, and governance (ESG) advantages over alternative sources, ATHA is well-positioned to capitalize on this upward trajectory. 

Operational Strengths: World’s Largest, Highest-Grade Uranium Deposits & Mines

Athabasca Basin: 
ATHA’s operational strength lies in the Athabasca Basin, home to the world’s largest and highest-grade uranium deposits and mines. ATHA’s strategic positioning in this resource-rich basin provides a solid foundation for sustainable growth.

Jurisdictional Support:
Canada as a whole, but more specifically the Province of Saskatchewan, where ATHA’s projects are situated, is ranked number three on Fraser Institute’s list of top mining-investment jurisdictions globally. Saskatchewan has a long history of uranium exploration and mining, going back more than 70 years. Both the federal and provincial governments are focused on supporting the uranium exploration and mining sectors, as both levels of government continue to announce plans to expand and advance Canada’s nuclear energy sector. ATHA Energy is the largest land holder of prospective uranium exploration mineral claims in Canada, and thusly has the support of all levels of government.


Exploration Potential:

ATHA distinguishes itself by operating in an exploration-rich environment. While competitors often limit their focus to one project in maturing or matured districts, ATHA’s approach is to explore numerous projects across the entire Athabasca Basin. Their projects encompass all current, past, and developing uranium mining camps, focusing on areas that are underexplored, applying a systematic geoscience approach to exploration. This approach truly positions ATHA as a leader in the exploration and discovery of new, substantial uranium deposits.

Management Proficiency: Track Record of Value Creation

ATHA Foundation: 
The foundation laid by ATHA’s founders reflects not just financial backing but a shared vision for success. Their ability to raise substantial capital showcases the market’s confidence in ATHA’s potential. ATHA’s land is sourced by the same group which provided NexGen Energy’s foundational assets and were involved in Hathor Exploration’s Roughrider deposit (C$650MM sale to Rio Tinto). 


Technical Expertise: 

ATHA’s CEO is Troy Boisjoli, a geologist with two decades of experience in exploration and production of uranium in the Athabasca Basin. Troy most recently held the position of Chief Geologist at Cameco’s Eagle Point Uranium Mine, and Vice-President of Exploration and Development at NexGen Energy. The technical team is further bolstered by Doug Engdahl, Managing Director at ATHA, and Doug Adams, Vice-President of Exploration. Both are veteran uranium geologists with decades of experience in the Athabasca Basin, holding senior roles in exploration and production at Cameco.


Strategic Assets and Financial Flexibility: 

ATHA’s possession of 3.4 million acres across four exploration districts, coupled with financial flexibility, positions the company to leverage modern technology and pursue strategic opportunities, including farm-outs and mergers and acquisitions (M&A).


Desirable Carried Interest: 

ATHA’s assets include 10% carried interests on key exploration blocks owned and operated by two of the most successful development teams in the Basin: NexGen Energy & IsoEnergy.

Exploration & Discovery Strategy: Pioneering the Future
Systematic Exploration Approach: 
ATHA’s commitment to a systematic, data-driven approach to exploration sets it apart. By focusing on exploration at scale and tier-one targets, ATHA maximizes the probability of success in a field where precision is paramount. 

Discovery Strategy: 
ATHA’s meticulous discovery strategy involves an array of techniques, including historic data analysis, geophysical surveys, geochemical processing, 3D modeling, and targeted allocation. This approach underscores ATHA’s commitment to methodical exploration and groundbreaking discoveries. 

Financial Landscape: Valuation & Market Dynamics

Valuation Disparity: 
ATHA’s market cap of $92 million is indicative of an undervaluation in the market. This sets the stage for an opportune entry point for investors, especially when compared to competitors such as Cameco (NYSE: CCJ) and NexGen (NYSE: NXE).


Capital Structure Strength: 

The tightly held shares, insider ownership at 46%, and institutional ownership at 25% highlight the market’s confidence in ATHA’s financial stability and potential for growth. 

Competitive Analysis: ATHA’s Standout Position

Comparative Valuation: 
In a landscape dominated by competitors like Cameco and Nexgen, ATHA stands out as an undervalued gem. The comparative valuation underscores the potential for substantial returns, making ATHA an attractive investment opportunity. Compared to its peers we can see below that their market cap is significantly lower even given the recent developments with their projects, the surveys, cash position vs. burn and the strategic site locations near their competitors where favorable survey results have been published. As I mentioned earlier, ATHA’s assets also include 10% carried interests on key exploration blocks owned and operated by two of the most successful development teams in the Basin: NexGen Energy & IsoEnergy.

Recent Acquisition & Financing News

ATHA Energy Announces Proposed Acquisition of 92 Energy & Latitude Uranium and Concurrent $14M Financing – December 7, 2023

This will be a massive development strategically for this company as it not only strengthens their balance sheet but will create an attractive opportunity for institutional ownership to increase. Because of the larger market cap institutions will be more likely to participate in owning the company going forward. This Transaction also will position ATHA to now have the largest exploration portfolio in Canada. The combined company is expected to provide shareholders with exposure to 7.1 million acres of exploration acreage spread across Canada’s top three uranium jurisdictions, representing the largest exploration portfolios in some of the highest-grade uranium districts in the world.

Conclusion

In conclusion, ATHA’s strategic advantages form a robust foundation for the company’s ascent in the uranium sector. The convergence of imminent supply deficits, operational strengths, a proficient management team, exploration prowess, and an undervaluation relative to competitors positions ATHA on a trajectory towards unparalleled success in the nuclear renaissance.

ATHA Energy Corp (OTCQB: SASKF; CSE: SASK; FRA: X5U)

  • Idea: Long SASKF $0.75+
  • Target Area (Short Term): $1.07
  • Target Area (2 – 6 Months): $1.37 – $1.50+
  • Risk: $0.20

Current Idea is a speculation long on SASKF (2 – 6 months).

More information on ATHA Energy Corp, including their most recent presentation highlighting their recent transaction announcement can be found here.

Best Regards,
Spartan (aka ‘Chris’)




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