SPARTAN’S 2026 MARKET OUTLOOK
SPARTAN’S 2026 MARKET OUTLOOK
This communication is not an offer to buy or sell securities nor is it to be construed as personal investment advice. Nothing contained in this communication should be relied upon as a promise or representation as to future performance.
ARE YOU READY TO TRADE IN 2026?
As we wrap up an impressive 2025 and step into 2026, it’s wise to pause and assess the market’s behavior from the past year while laying out our investment strategy moving forward. This sets the stage for our 2026 selections, focusing on a structured, evidence-based method for building portfolios that draws from past results, emerging trends, and broader economic indicators.
REVIEW OF 2025 MARKET PERFORMANCE
Last year stood out as one of the most rewarding trading periods I’ve seen in the last ten years, with major benchmarks posting strong advances, though the rally was heavily skewed toward a handful of tech giants.
The S&P 500 climbed around 40%, hitting fresh peaks near 6,691 in September and pushing higher from there, thanks mainly to momentum in big-cap stocks. The NASDAQ Composite jumped about 57%, finishing close to 23,593 by the end of December, highlighting the dominant role of tech innovation.
On the small-cap side, the Russell 2000 returned a respectable 24%, wrapping up around 2,518, with a particularly strong third quarter at 12.4%. Overall, the tech sector gained 25%, which really drove the market’s outsized performance, even if participation wasn’t broad.
Beyond tech, there were solid chances in small caps and commodities that added real value. Commodity trends varied: Gold soared more than 70% to top $4,400 an ounce, Silver did even better by breaking to new records, but oil struggled with oversupply, leading to a roughly 7% drop in broader commodity benchmarks.
Inflation cooled off, dropping to 2.7% annually in the U.S. by November from 3.0% back in September, signaling a more balanced economy. The dollar took a hit, with the DXY index down about 11% in the first half and settling near 98 by year’s end, compared to over 101 at the start of 2025. In bonds, the 10-year Treasury yield edged up to 4.12% by late December, from around 3.88% at the close of 2024.
In our own 2025 calls, highlights like Micron Technology ($MU) and Oklo ($OKLO) each rose over 250%, showing the payoff from focusing on semis and nuclear plays.
YEAR-END REFLECTION & CONTINUOUS IMPROVEMENT
Wrapping up the year, it’s always smart to look back, not just at the numbers, but at your mindset and habits too. Dig into your trading logs and stats to spot the soft spots to fix and the strengths to build on, so you can ramp up effectively into the next year.
Look at where you were strong and where you were weak, focus on eliminating the bad behaviors and putting new (good) behaviors in place which you believe can improve your results.
A great exercise is to write down what your trading goal for 2026 is and then write out 15-20 behaviors you can put in place in order to get yourself there. The first 10 will be easy but the last 10 will be extremely hard to place so take your time and come back to it after a couple of days if needed.
Also, if your looking to take your trading to the next level and need help building a system, getting your risk reward dialed and being held accountable email me and we can see if you are fit for Mentorship. There is only one spot remaining and we only take dedicated students willing to put in hard work.
2026 WATCHLIST
Heading into 2026, I’m expecting tech to keep delivering, especially with AI picking up steam. I am also expecting the jobs numbers to continue to decline in the United States as productivity grows with AI with GDP growth.
In my opinion, we are entering a new era and the next few years will be extremely transformational for the labor market as AI helps improve and even takes over many services that are currently done electronically. As Robotics continue to advance with their integration of AI, I would expect a lot of physical jobs (including ride share services) will begin to be replaced as well.
Infrastructure, computing power and energy will become that much more important as the current demand has already dwarfed the supply – Moore’s law is no longer relevant as we are seeing breakthroughs and advancements even quicker on the chip side. This year I am anticipating more breakthroughs with Medicine and Quantum computing at the infancy stage but this will be extremely important when looking ahead to 2027.
Lastly, I believe this will also cause a shift with currency and what will be seen as a safe haven. In my opinion, this may result in commodities entering into a full-blown super cycle. Not only are commodities key inputs into most technologies, but the strength of Gold and Silver will begin to spill over into other key areas.
Here are some key sectors I will be watching:
- Energy & Infrastructure: Opportunities in compact uranium reactors for cleaner energy production and to support the energy demands of AI. Also, now that inflation has come I will be watching for the price of Oil to steadily increase as demand increases and supply stays consistent.
- Data & Semiconductors: Investments tied to storage solutions, chipmakers, and AI Tech / Robotics.
- Quantum Computing: Looking for breakthroughs at the infancy stage that will be replicated across the board rather just in one company (GOOGLE).
- Robotics: This could be a game-changer over the next few years, involving everything from raw inputs to sensors, data handling, AI software, and semis. It’s not mainstream yet, but 2026 feels like the sweet spot to get in, with trading volume likely to follow.
- Drones & Defense: Focus on Drones within the defensive sector with an overlap slowly into the delivery and automation space.
- Space: Bet on orbital data facilities, boosted by SpaceX’s expected IPO, which should spark broader interest in the space.
- Retail Recovery: Some U.S. focused retailers that got hammered by tariffs last year have had time to shift their supply chains, and I see them bouncing back strongly from the bottom.
- Cryptocurrency: After lagging in 2025, crypto should shift toward practical, utility-driven assets that draw in more capital, heating up the speculative side.
- Oil: Inflation has been much more controlled which should take supply pressure off the commodity raising prices.
- Mining: Looking for new issues on the Nasdaq and many names to consolidate or be up listed.
- Energy & Infrastructure: Opportunities in compact uranium reactors for cleaner energy production and to support the energy demands of AI. Also, now that inflation has come I will be watching for the price of Oil to steadily increase as demand increases and supply stays consistent.
All this is supported by what looks like a banner year for liquidity, thanks to a flood of IPOs. Our picks will tie into these ideas, aiming for balanced, high-potential returns in a thoughtful thesis framework.
Lets dive into the names of what I am looking for in 2026 – starting with the Mega Caps, then moving into Individual Names:
2026 MARKET OUTLOOK
Ticker: $SPY
Spartan’s Thoughts: Watching for some short term consolidative and controlled profit taking to start the year and then the market to ramp up quite heavily to the upside. I am expecting guidance across the board to grow this year because of the improvements in efficiency and the continued growth and demand for US tech. I also expect the breadth of the market move to widen this year out of the main 8-10 mega cap names completely across the board.
Targets / Levels: Targets on the upside after breaking back above the top end channel will be $752.56, $791.75 – 8 aggressive go parabolic. These are fib extension levels I am looking for.
Options Note: January 2027 790-820-850 butterfly or 780-820 vertical debit spread.
Ticker: $QQQ
Spartan’s Thoughts: Looking for further continuation on the tech side to the upside this year. Little profit taking to start then the break of the downtrend and push along side the top channel until that is broken and we go potentially parabolic to the upside.
Targets / Levels: Upside Resistance levels I am looking for, 674.12, 694.11 within the first 6 months of the year. 730.46 to potentially 780.44 after.
Options Note: January 2027 690-730-760 butterfly or 680-720 vertical debit spread.
Ticker: $IWM
Spartan’s Thoughts: Has lagged over the last 5 years, been quite consolidative and is now testing the range to the upside for a breakout. I think the combination of lower interest rates and efficiencies improving as well as GDP Growth in the states and the money starting to trickle down from the mega caps we should see a great year for the IWM. Small caps I believe will breakout and go parabolic this year because of the improved liquidity in the market I am anticipating like 2020-2021. We did see them perk up the last 6 months (minus November) as well.
Targets / Levels: 277.12 to 287.34 to start the year. 304.40 on the upside there after.
Options Note: January 2027, 270-300-330 butterfly or 280-310 vertical debit spread.
Ticker: $XLE
Spartan’s Thoughts: Watching for the downtrend break on the weekly, a push back into the recent range highs and a breakout to the upside to all time highs. Expecting the price of Oil to increase this year as inflation has been tamed and supply stays steady with demand growth.
Targets / Levels: 54.38 – 57.71
Options Note: January 2027 55-60-65 butterfly spread or 50-57 vertical call spread.
Ticker: $XLP
Spartan’s Thoughts: Expecting Consumer staples to underperform this year as money gets allocated into more aggressive growth related sectors and the need for defensive names diminishes. Also, looking for the cost of goods to decrease as inflation stays consistently in-control, and production efficiencies and Tariff expenses become less impactful. Believe this will be a fairly flat to bearish neutral type move this year.
Targets / Levels: –
Options Note: Iron Condor. January 2027 85-95 call short and 65-55 put short.
Ticker: $XLY
Spartan’s Thoughts: Watching for the consumer discretionary names to outperform this year. They lagged all of last year because many of the Tariff, inflationary, and consumer liquidity issues within the market. I am looking for the consumer to become stronger this year, the trickle down of the GDP growth into the consumers pocket and the recovery of many of these discretionary names that were hammered by Tariffs.
Targets / Levels: 137 – 143 in the short term, upper end 160 – 170.
Options Note: January 2027 130-160-190 butterfly spread. Jan 2027 130-170 vertical call spread.
MAG 7 OUTLOOK
Ticker: $AAPL
Spartan’s Thoughts: Has almost become a commodity type of name with the amount of Cash they consistently pull in each year without real innovation and massive growth which I believe will finally start to change this year. I will be looking for more innovation, potential acquisitions into the AI and potentially robotic space which will create excitement again around the stock.
AAPL has lagged behind most innovation and new disruptive products in the last 10-15 years but that is because they have such a massive foothold of the market. They cannot afford to release something that isn’t perfect and well tested as they do not want to give up the market share they have which is currently at a critical mass. I do believe though they will now be forced to go down this road as the tide is completely changing in the tech sector, this has always been one of the best names simple because of the extremely smart management and I can’t see them not going down this road now. The timing here should be right. Watching for a breakout to the upside this year and for the market to steadily push and potentially go parabolic as it takes out its top channel range in the second half of the year.
Targets / Levels: 330 – 348 on the upside.
Options Note: January 2027 310-340-370 butterfly or January 2027 300-330 vertical call spread.
Ticker: $AMZN
Spartan’s Thoughts: Expecting the name to push forward steadily as consumer spending slowly increases and the efficiencies in their business model continue to improve and decrease costs for operating and shipping. This in my opinion will be a channel grind to the upside this year. Slow and steady.
Targets / Levels: 290 – 300, if we go parabolic would expect 330 as the upside fib extension.
Options Note: January 2027, 290-310-330 call butterfly or 300-320 vertical call spread.
Ticker: $GOOGL
Spartan’s Thoughts: Watch in January for a slight pull back then flag breakout to start the year. I am looking for the name to continue along its parabolic channel movement to the upside and be one of the leaders on the MAG 7 this year. I am expecting them to lead the charge on the Quantum computing front this year and see many more breakthroughs with Willow.
I am also watching for more development on the AI front and I expect them to push extremely hard here so that they do not loose as much market share to ChatGPT and the other AI’s functioning as search engines. The one thing Google has going for it is it is one of the first movers in that search engine space and naturally if they produce a product that is even close to ChatGPT they should come out ahead as Google is an extremely sticky product. What other search engine have you really used for the last 20 years?
Targets / Levels: On the upside 4385 – 406. Blow off parabolic target 440 – 470
Options Note: January 2027 390-430-470 butterfly call spread. 400-440-2027 debit call spread.
Ticker: $META
Spartan’s Thoughts: Lagging behind most of the Mega Cap Tech names to end 2025 but I expect this to change this year. Zuck is an extremely smart and innovative CEO and I expect them to come out with some products, have some JVs or acquisitions this year which will really boost their forward looking guidance. I saw that they were already rolling out AI for ads on Instagram and Facebook, I would expect them to own almost the entire market within that space. This revenue stream I believe will prove to be astronomical.
Targets / Levels: 904 – 985 on the upside, would expect a split at some point as well.
Options Note: January 2027 900-1000-1100 butterfly spread. 880-980 vertical call spread.
Ticker: $MSFT
Spartan’s Thoughts: Watching for a push back to the upside this year but for the move to be more gradual bullish neutral within the channel. Expecting this to slightly underperform other MAG 7 names but to be bullish none the less.
Targets / Levels: 601.55 – 652.12
Options Note: January 2027 550-600-650 Butterfly Call spread. January 2027 550-625 vertical debit spread.
Ticker: $NDVA
Spartan’s Thoughts: Watching for the head and shoulders break to the upside and a move back to all time highs in the first quarter of the year. I am then expecting parabolic move and the name to bullishly consolidate as the guidance becomes less and less blow out. The growth here has been astronomical and Jensen has even stated it is somewhat unsustainable and they need more of their peers to come in and take the demand simply because they cannot fill it all.
With that being said I am still extremely bullish on NVDA, I am looking for a larger move to start the year and then more consolidative price action as other peers begin to fill some of the demand, not to say they will take any market share away from NVDA as that market is growing astronomically and is extremely hard to quantify where a ceiling will be (if any).
Targets / Levels: 238 – 262 short term. If we go parabolic around the 300 range.
Options Note: January 2027 Butterfly 250-275-300. January 2027 225-300 vertical call spread.
Ticker: $TSLA
Spartan’s Thoughts: Expecting a massive year from TSLA. With X Ai, Space X and the less talked about Optimus Robotics I believe we will see a big year from the company. We have been consolidating for over a year within a massive range, I believe a lot of the tech they are producing with be either unmatched or on par with some of the best companies within that sector world wide. With Space X going public this should boost TSLA in sympathy, I am also expecting more out of X ai going forward as Elon has probably one of the best abilities to innovate, pivot and plan ahead in directions people were never thinking (whether you hate him or love him what he has done with all his companies is quite impressive).
Optimus I believe will be the next largest chapter for the company, by the end of 2026 I expect them to begin rolling out this product quite lightly to the retail market. The total addressable market for robotics they say will be 5 Trillion by 2050 but I believe this to be incorrect. We must look at the labor market as a whole which In 2024, the global Gross Domestic Product (GDP), a measure of the total value of goods and services produced by all labor, was approximately $111.1 trillion. I believe the market share robotics will take from this will exponentially grow from 1-50% within 10 years if not faster. Meaning the forward looking guidance for TSLA should be quite impressive as they will be one of the first movers and distributors of the tech world wide.
Gigafactory’s have been built world wide which I believe in the end are not really for creating vehicles but robots when they are ready to roll them out at scale (this may be 2-5 years down the road or more).
Targets / Levels: 567 – 640 short term. Parabolic move within 710 – 750 range.
Options Note: January 2027 700-800-900 butterfly, January 2027 750-950 Call debit spread.
DATA & SEMICONDUCTORS
Ticker: $AVGO
Spartan’s Thoughts: Mega Cap Semi Conductor Name Focused on AI networking and storage chips. Broadcom’s acquisitions and custom silicon for hyperscalers like Google make it a top pick imo. Will be watching for continued guidance expansion and the name to push higher this year after the h/s break and the all time highs. IMO this can separate itself from a few of the other mega cap semis in regards to performance this year.
Targets / Levels: 489.89 – 513.06
Options Note: January 2027 425-500-575 call Butterfly or January 2027 450-550 call debit spread.
Ticker: $TSM
Spartan’s Thoughts: Expected a continued outperformance and parabolic type price action to start the year w/ room for continuation to the upside to start. Ton of exposure to AI and Robotics with Clients like NVDA and AMD ensures there will be ample demand that should increase going forward especially as AI data storage and Robotics advance this year.
Targets / Levels: 373.60, 400.36 – 415.79
Options Note: January 2027 400-450-500 call butterfly spread or January 2027 400-500 debit calls spread.
Ticker: $ARM
Spartan’s Thoughts: Under performed in 2025 but am expecting a higher adoption this year of much more energy efficient AI related Semi conductor chips, Arm’s v9 architecture is becoming the standard for efficient AI host CPUs, with its data center market share climbing toward 23%. This positions it to benefit from the AI boom, as hyperscalers like AWS and Microsoft adopt Arm-based chips for power-efficient computing in massive data centers.
Targets / Levels: 188.70, 227.04.
Options Note: January 190-240 debit call spread or January 2027 200c calls.
Ticker: $ALAB
Spartan’s Thoughts: Lagging behind but flagging on the weekly to the upside for continuation to start the year. With Global data center capacity projected to triple by 2030, driven by AI, ALAB’s silicon solutions are critical for hyperscalers like AWS, Google, and Microsoft. Its Aries and Taurus product lines enable faster, more efficient AI systems which I am looking for demand for ALABs products to accelerate this year and be reflected in their earnings.
Targets / Levels: –
Options Note: –
Ticker: $ON
Spartan’s Thoughts: Underperformed in 2025 due to weakness in auto and industrial end-markets which I believe will start to see recovery early on this year which will as a result help ON rebound as demand increase this year. I also will be looking for further demand from some product pivots and new offerings this year as well.
Targets / Levels: 87.96 then 111.90
Options Note: January 2027 90-110-130 call Butterfly spread. January 90-130 debit call spread.
ENERGY & INFRASTRUCTURE
Ticker: $CEG
Spartan’s Thoughts: Leading Nuclear power name focusing on Modular reactors (SMRs) Is positioned strongly for more AI data center type deals this year. Think this name will secure itself as one of the biggest providers in this space, should see a more stable move to the upside this year. Weekly flag to start us of and then looking for continuation.
Targets / Levels: 496-524
Options Note: 450-500-550 Call butterfly Spread. 450-525 weekly calls.
Ticker: $OKLO
Spartan’s Thoughts: Uranium Name which is developing compact nuclear reactors for data centers, believe this will see more and more traction and agreements with the larger cap names to secure they have the energy supply moving forward. Faced with a pull back and profit taking into the end of 2025, looking for the price action to bounce back and stabilize moving forward.
Targets / Levels: 193.99 then 241.92 resistance levels.
Options Note: January 2027 190-240-290 call butterfly spread. January 200-275 call debit spread.
Ticker: $CVX
Spartan’s Thoughts: Set to benefit this year right away from the Venezuela situation and the further increase in demand of Oil moving forward. The main kicker is Chevron is the only major U.S. oil company with ongoing operations in Venezuela, maintaining joint ventures with state-owned PDVSA under a U.S. sanctions waiver. It has been producing and importing around 120,000-200,000 barrels per day of Venezuelan crude to U.S. refineries, even during peak sanctions. This gives them direct exposure among its peers. Technically we have also seen some solid bull flag consolidation for a break out to start the year.
Targets / Levels: 221.28 – 225.78
Options Note: January 2027 190-230 debit call spread or 200 call leaps.
QUANTUM COMPUTING
Ticker: $IBM
Spartan’s Thoughts: From the mega cap perspective would be my second or third pick with GOOGL and MSFT (already covered) to lead pioneering of Quantum computing with their Quantum Network. They will drive commercial apps with their current system with just over 100 qubits. Steady mover imo this year as this isn’t their main focus but they are still set up to perform. IMO Quantum is still a speculative industry so this pick would give you exposure without the extreme risk other spec names have.
Targets / Levels: 367-402
Options Note: January 2027 370-430 call debit spread.
Ticker: $IONQ
Spartan’s Thoughts: Speculative Quantum pick with direct and full exposure. I am looking for more breakthroughs within the sector and for this name to benefit this year. Liquidity was pulled out of speculation names into the end of 2025 but I am looking for this industry to pick steam back up moving forward in 2026.
Targets / Levels: 105-109. Parabolic target area 170-180
Options Note: January 2027 80-140-200 call butterfly spread or 90-150 debit call spread.
ROBOTICS
Best exposure in this space is already stated as TSLA and NVDA in the Newsletter, but let’s look at some smaller-midcap speculative names as well.
Ticker: $SYM
Spartan’s Thoughts: Warehouse Robotics which are using AI. I expect this to be the first real area where robotics will be deployed at scale and critical mass, years before we see robotics in the retail market. This industry is posed to continue to grow in 2026 as there continues to be improvements in efficiencies and a declining labor market.
Targets / Levels: 105 – 109 area, parabolic target, 120 – 140
Options Note: January 2027 100-130 debit calls spread or 90 January Calls..
Ticker: $RBOT
Spartan’s Thoughts: Completely speculation off the lows as this is a smaller cap name that has been beaten down in the space into the end of 2025. That being said I am looking for a push back off the lows, watch for a push and then dilution though so in my opinion it would be a sell into the move once the trend breaks or there is some sort of an offering and then re-position.
Targets / Levels: 13.87 – 16.08
Options Note: Equity Focus
DRONES & DEFENCE
Ticker: $AVAV
Spartan’s Thoughts: Military Drones which continues to be one of the fastest growing areas in the defensive sector moving forward. I believe this will continue and we will see market share taken away from a few areas that require maned operatives as this becomes a much cheaper, safer and more efficient way of waging war as we have seen.
Targets / Levels: 460 first then 510 areas if we go parabolic
Options Note: January 2027 400 calls or 350-425-500 Call butterfly spread.
SPACE
Ticker: $LMT
Spartan’s Thoughts: Not direct exposure but a safer play in my opinion with its orbital systems and partnerships with SpaceX proxies which we will see IPO this year and this should get direct sympathy from that.
Targets / Levels: 618 first and then 670
Options Note: January 2027 600-650-700 butterfly spread. January 2027 580-680 debit call spread.
Ticker: $LUNR
Spartan’s Thoughts: Range breakout off the lows with room for continuation higher, speculative exposure. Watching for a break of the recent weekly range around 25 and a push higher this year. Its IM-1 mission success and upcoming IM-2/IM-3 landers position it for multi-billion NASA/CLPS contracts, driving revenue from lunar data relays and orbital services.
Targets / Levels: First 25, Second target areas blow off parabolic 50-80
Options Note: January 2027 50 calls or short term 25 June calls.
RETAIL RECOVERY
Ticker: $LULU
Spartan’s Thoughts: Beaten down Apparel Retail Name, already starting to push off the lows. Expecting Tariff restrictions to ease for this name in 2026 and now that they have a new CEO in place I believe they are in a great spot for a solid recovery off the lows.
Targets / Levels: 340 first target and then 425-515 on the upside.
Options Note: January 2027 300-400-500 call butterfly spread or January 2027 350-500 call debit spread.
Ticker: $RH
Spartan’s Thoughts: With the recovery of consumer and pullback of a lot of the extremely impactful Tariffs for 2026 I would expect the earning guidance and demand for their products to spike as we move forward this year. Set for a downtrend break off the lows and recovery back into the recent range highs on the upside here.
Targets / Levels: –
Options Note: January 2027 350-450-550 call butterfly spread or 250-450 January 2027 calls.
CRYPTOCURRENCY
Ticker: $CRCL
Spartan’s Thoughts: Pushing off the lows and ready to move higher this year as we see Crypto recover. Is highly underperformed into the end of 2025 and I expect there to be more bullish headlines, macro-economic and policies moving forward in 2026 which will boost the space.
Targets / Levels: 160 first and if we go parabolic 266-296 levels.
Options Note: January 2027 150-225-300 call butterfly spread or 125-200 call debit spread.
MINING
Ticker: $FCX
Spartan’s Thoughts: Copper Focused for AI and Renewables which has been bullishly consolidating for the last few years, expecting a breakout of the range as we see these copper names pick up moving forward aside from the other commodity related names.
There will be other smaller mining names that we will be sharing throughout the year so stay tuned for those. We expect there to be any headlines and consolidative type movements within the industry – especially given the current geopolitical landscape.
Targets / Levels: 67.98 – 70.49
Options Note: January 2027 55-70-85 Call butterfly spread.
